'It would be suicidal': the harsh realities of a raid on Area 51

More than a million people have signed up to a Facebook event that plans to storm Area 51 and "see them aliens". But what would happen if they actually tried?
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Area 51 has captivated the hearts and minds of alien fanatics for decades. The extraterrestrial secrets supposedly concealed at the high security US military base in Nevada fascinate anyone with a penchant for the paranormal. Now, because of a flippant Facebook page turned viral, they might finally be revealed.

The event, ‘Storm Area 51, They Can't Stop All of Us’, has so far attracted 1.5 million ostensibly willing participants, and a further 1.1m people interested in attending, or soaking up the flood of alien and Area 51 related memes. The “plan” is to assemble at 03:00 on September 20 at the Alien Center tourist attraction in the Amargosa Valley – about an hour away from their target – and coordinate entry to the secretive base.

The event is clearly tongue in cheek – organised by Facebook pages ‘Shitposting cause im in shambles’, ‘SmyleeKun’ and ‘The Hidden Sound’ – and most people seem more excited by the opportunity for humour, rather than actually storming the base.

However, a strain of the commentators have expressed a genuine desire to attend, and the New York Times reported that B&Bs and rental cars are solidly booked over this period in the surrounding area. But what would happen if people actually do attempt to storm the base? Would a million-strong army be enough to reveal the secrets of Area 51 and see “them aliens”?

“It's not going to be as easy and straightforward as that,” says Kanishkan Sathasivam, professor of political science at Salem State University, an expert on international security with a background in aerospace engineering. “These towns are really tiny, and for 100,000 people – let alone more than that – to come down into these towns, would be logistically impossible.”

The infrastructure in the surrounding area would struggle to cope with a sudden influx of people. Not only would the roads be overrun but other basic questions such as where they would stay, what they would eat and drink would also pose issues. The closest town is Rachel, Nevada, 40km north of the base. “Even for a highly organised group or institution with lots of resources, it would be very difficult to pull off,” he continues.

The power of civilians has been highlighted recently by the protests held by climate change group, Extinction Rebellion, who, with around 1,000 people spread across London, managed to hold five major roads over the course of a week. The Metropolitan Police force found itself overwhelmed and unable to clear the locations efficiently.

But the closest reference point to a storming of Area 51, were it to actually play out, might be the Standing Rock protests, which at their peak managed to concentrate thousands of environmental protesters in the remote desert area in North Dakota. Despite numerous police attempts to shut it down, the camp and protests existed from April 2016 to February 2017. Of course, the police and army presence would likely be heightened in the case of an attempted siege on the Area 51 facility.

The US Air Force was sufficiently spooked to respond seriously, stating, "[Area 51] is an open training range for the U.S. Air Force, and we would discourage anyone from trying to come into the area where we train American armed forces," in comment supplied to The Washington Post. "The U.S. Air Force always stands ready to protect America and its assets."

Annie Jacobsen, an investigative journalist and author of Area 51: An Uncensored History of America's Top Secret Military Base, says the fact the the Air Force issued such a strongly worded statement “speaks to that idea that it is not a joke”. “All of them: the Defense Department, the CIA, NSA, NGA, you name it, they all monitor Facebook very closely,” says Jacobsen. “And they're also all very aware of the fact that a Facebook campaign can lead to violence.” In India WhatsApp groups have been linked to mob violence and deaths in 2018; Russian misinformation campaigns on Facebook saw thousands of people interact with events planned to take place offline.

“Area 51 is jealously guarded, both in terms of its representation to the public and the access to the base,” she adds. Jacobsen refers to the sprawling surveillance technology spread over the base’s 90,000 acres, and the US government bought up swathes of previously private land up around the base. Ground sensors, satellite imagery, and drones are just some of the technologies the base is known to deploy in its security arsenal.

“Force protection isn't just a few armed guards at the entrance gate,” says James Forest, professor of School of Criminology and Justice Studies at the University of Massachusettes, with a specialism in international security, terrorism and counterterrorism. “The attackers would certainly not have the element of surprise, nor superior numbers, nor superior firepower or technology to achieve any of their objectives. It would be completely suicidal to even attempt such a thing.”

Yet in theory, the crux of the plan, however frivolously intended, could hold water. “If you could literally wave a magic wand and get 100,000 people working in unison in an organised, thoughtful matter, it would be a very serious thing,” says Sathasivam. Theoretically, if enough people tried, it would be possible to overwhelm the base’s defences, but the chances of this critical mass attempting such a thing is slim to nil. While fascinated by what the base might contain, most aren’t willing to take a bullet to find out.

Lethal violence has been levelled against would-be intruders at Area 51 before. A man attempting to gain access to the base in January 2019 was shot dead, after failing to comply with demands to stop. In another incident, a car full of tourists was pulled over and held at gunpoint in early 2016. In 2014, a tourist bus carrying four passengers accidentally barrelled through warning signs and sailed into the base. The bus was intercepted by military patrols and everyone in the van threatened with misdemeanour convictions and $650 (£523) fines. In the end, only the driver was charged. It is also prohibited to fly in the airspace above the based for both commercial and military planes. A couple times when a private airline pilot has flown into the Area 51 airspace they have been escorted out.

Area 51 has also been a locus of protest gatherings before, in the 1950s, when it was revealed it was a nuclear weapons testing facility, which could prove a boon if any kind of activity was staged. “You're talking about decades of experience with crowd control,” says Jacobsen.

Yet even if such a plan was successfully executed, would intruders find anything of interest? Since the base’s existence was finally admitted for the first time by the US government in 2013, military and intelligence analysts have suggested that given public knowledge, any highly sensitive military programmes and materials would have been dispersed around other, secret bases. However, others dispute this based on the vast area the base sits on – the size of Connecticut – as well as the existence of extensive underground storage facilities that were created in the 1960s when the base was used as a nuclear testing site. In the unlikely scenario that a serious attack was launched against the base, Sathasivam points out that the US government would be able to whisk the most sensitive exhibits to another secure facility, say in Antarctica well beforehand.

The intense security and mystery surrounding the facility adds credence to the notion that extraterrestrial life might be concealed there, but though more prosaic, this could instead be explained by the geopolitically sensitive nature of the contents. “Let's say a serious group of individuals were putting together a well thought out plan to infiltrate Area 51, don't you think the Russians and the Chinese would love to infiltrate the group doing the training for that?” points out Sathasivam. “Of course the military and the government is going to be taking this seriously.” The base’s true purpose – the one that’s admitted to the public anyway – is for experimentation with military aircraft and weaponry.

Although Area 51 is still shrouded in secrecy, some of the layers of mystique have been peeled back over the years. Declassified documents released in 2013 backed up the US government’s claims it was used for developing aircraft, specifically, the U-2 and OXCART surveillance aircraft in the 1950s and 1960s. But simultaneously, the US government has stoked alien suspicions, with the Pentagon admitting they have a UFO programme for the first time in 2017 and throwing UFO-watchers into hyperdrive. Last month a group of US senators were briefed on UFO encounters the US Navy had experienced.

Rumours around Area 51 were stoked by the testimony of Bob Lazar, who in 1989 claimed to have worked in the nearby S4 facility, on reverse engineering alien technology from crashed UFOs and had seen autopsy photographs of aliens. Perhaps his recent appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast and as part of a Netflix show is responsible for the current increase in interest.

However, the man himself has advised against the plans. “Area 51 is a classified research base. There are no aliens or alien technology located there,” Lazar wrote on Instagram. “The only place there was ever any alien technology was at Site S4, south of Area 51 proper. That was 30 years ago. S4 may have moved decades ago or it’s possible it’s no longer being used for the project." (There hasn't been any evidence published supporting Lazar's claims).

Despite the ramping numbers of gleeful ‘attendees’ of the Facebook event, the likelihood of a full-scale attempt being launched against the base remains minimal. Speaking to NPR, the organiser said he'll "more than likely be there, but not for the intended purpose”. This gathering could take a number of forms, he said, but is unlikely to involve "sprinting through the desert at 3am."

This article was originally published by WIRED UK